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This is a thread on #vaccination, originally by @StefanLeifert, translated into English because there seems to be interest. Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) (plus some editing by me). /1
Why is vaccination starting so slowly in Germany and the EU? Did the EU fail in ordering the vaccine?
Not everything went optimally, but the alternatives were worse.
A thread
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Not everything went optimally, but the alternatives were worse.
A thread
/2
What was the principle behind vaccine ordering?
1. The 27 EU countries ordered together to avoid a vaccine nationalist race. This worked, to the astonishment of many.
2. the EU relies on several manufacturers to spread the risk. This also succeeded. /3
1. The 27 EU countries ordered together to avoid a vaccine nationalist race. This worked, to the astonishment of many.
2. the EU relies on several manufacturers to spread the risk. This also succeeded. /3
Did the EU order too few vaccine doses?
No, rather too many. The EU has secured 2 billion doses for 450 million EU citizens from 6 manufacturers. Since it was not clear when contract was signed in summer 2020 which vaccines would be ready for market first, EU over-ordered. /4
No, rather too many. The EU has secured 2 billion doses for 450 million EU citizens from 6 manufacturers. Since it was not clear when contract was signed in summer 2020 which vaccines would be ready for market first, EU over-ordered. /4
Could the EU have ordered more from Biontech?
Yes, because it was not clear at the time of contract whether Biontech would be fast & successful, EU ordered 200 million doses. Less than other manufacturers b/c Biontech is expensive (12 EUR/dose) & complicated (-70° cooling). /5
Yes, because it was not clear at the time of contract whether Biontech would be fast & successful, EU ordered 200 million doses. Less than other manufacturers b/c Biontech is expensive (12 EUR/dose) & complicated (-70° cooling). /5
Couldn't the EU have quickly reordered from Biontech?
It did. When the fast-track approval became apparent, the EU reordered 100 million doses for which it already had an option. It is currently negotiating a further reorder with Biontech/Pfizer. /6
It did. When the fast-track approval became apparent, the EU reordered 100 million doses for which it already had an option. It is currently negotiating a further reorder with Biontech/Pfizer. /6
Would a larger order have resulted in faster vaccination?
No. The bottleneck is not the low order quantity, but the low production capacity of the manufacturers. Biontech received a EUR 100m EU loan in June to expand its production. /7
No. The bottleneck is not the low order quantity, but the low production capacity of the manufacturers. Biontech received a EUR 100m EU loan in June to expand its production. /7
Why are other countries further along w/ vaccination?
1. B/c they started earlier due to accelerated approvals.
2. B/c manufacturers like Pfizer/Biontech delivered faster there
3. B/c small countries like Israel (9 mio) than in EU (450 mio). /8
1. B/c they started earlier due to accelerated approvals.
2. B/c manufacturers like Pfizer/Biontech delivered faster there
3. B/c small countries like Israel (9 mio) than in EU (450 mio). /8
What would have been the alternative?
Each EU country takes care of itself. Consequences:
- Vaccine nationalism à la "Germany first, Croatia second".
- a fight over vaccines that would have called into question cohesion of the EU
- EU vaccine patchwork
- higher prices /9
Each EU country takes care of itself. Consequences:
- Vaccine nationalism à la "Germany first, Croatia second".
- a fight over vaccines that would have called into question cohesion of the EU
- EU vaccine patchwork
- higher prices /9
What could have gone better?
- The EU could have been more courageous & risk-taking in the treaties. Failed because Eastern European countries found Biontech too expensive & France relied mainly on Sanofi.
- EU should have been more transparent about its vaccination strategy. /10
- The EU could have been more courageous & risk-taking in the treaties. Failed because Eastern European countries found Biontech too expensive & France relied mainly on Sanofi.
- EU should have been more transparent about its vaccination strategy. /10
What's next?
Moderna, the second vaccine, expected to be licensed in the EU on 6 January, followed by others in spring. That will end the shortage. What matters is how many EU citizens are vaccinated at the end of spring - not how many there are at the beginning of January. /11
Moderna, the second vaccine, expected to be licensed in the EU on 6 January, followed by others in spring. That will end the shortage. What matters is how many EU citizens are vaccinated at the end of spring - not how many there are at the beginning of January. /11
