Read on Twitter
1) thread. presidential elections in Moldova tomorrow. EU and Russia positions.
2) background: on 1.11 @sandumaiamd suprisingly won by 3.5% margin first round against incumbent Dodon, defeating the predictions of most opinion polls. in 2016 Dodon defeated @sandumaiamd by 52% to 48%.
3) @sandumaiamd came on top in the 1st round thanks to record turnout in diaspora -149.000 (compared to 140k in the 2nd round in 2016). this represented 12% of all voters. Dodon got 3% in diaspora. mobilization despite COVID and lockdowns in FR and IE.
4) without diaspora, @sandumaiamd was 3% behind Dodon. still a good result. better than polls predicted. +defeating huge asymmetry in media and financial resources favouring Dodon. Dodon boasted once of receiving monthly $700.000 illegal cash from Russia https://www.publika.md/proba-video-3-igor-dodon-spune-cati-bani-primea-lunar-din-rusia-pentru-psrm-600-700-de-mii-de-dolari-pana-la-un-milion_3044569.html
5) On foreign policy both candidates ran close to centre. Both want good relations with EU and Russia. Most other candidates endorsed @sandumaiamd, most importantly Renato Usatii who came 3rd with 16.9%. His voters will split in 2nd second round, that still favours @sandumaiamd
6) Russia has been reacting nervously. Putin endorsed Dodon. Mid-october FM Lavrov did not seem confident in Dodon's victory. sounded positive-ish on @sandumaiamd https://www.kp.ru/daily/217195/4303719/
7) Then there was an unprecedented statement from RU foreign intelligence service accusing the US of fomenting a revolution. Again - not a lot of confidence in Dodon's prospects. http://svr.gov.ru/smi/2020/10/o-vmeshatelstve-ssha-v-vybory-v-moldavii-.htm
8) a few days ago RU MFA issued another nervous statement attacking MD diaspora voting. trying to defend voting of Transnistrian residents https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4420073
9) there are risks of fraud. primarily around Transnistria. during 1st round 14.000 TN voters represented cca 1% of voters. Any massive increase of that number will be a credible sign of fraud. the right of vote for residents of TN is not the same as the right to sell/buy votes.
10) today courts decided Dodon used fake claims in leaflets to discredit @sandumaiamd . ordered their withdrawal. little practical effect. but a small moral victory. https://agora.md/stiri/79983/sandu-la-batut-pe-dodon-in-instanta-judecatoria-chisinau-a-constatat-ca-pliantele-contra-liderei-pas-sunt-defaimatoare-doc
11) the EU has warned against fraud. Politely as SE MFA @AnnLinde did https://twitter.com/AnnLinde/status/1327522834286047232?s=20
11) and more bluntly as MEP @SMuresan did - warning Dodon not to follow in Yanukovich's and Lukashenko's steps. https://www.facebook.com/SiegfriedMEP/posts/3610216279042288
12) Moldova is a semi-parliamentary republic. the results of the vote will matter a lot for future dynamics in parliament, but won't lead to automatic change in government. early parliamentary elections will be possible and likely but not immediately and not automatically.
