Is 2020 the year Baker can cook without Kitchens?

Lets dig in! https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">(thread)

Despite adding OBJ, 2019 was a disaster for Baker and #Browns offense

After a promising, efficient rookie campaign, Baker regressed in every category:

TD% https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend">
Yds/gm https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend">
cmp% https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend">
Y/A https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend">
INT% https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">
Sacks https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">

Yikes https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😬" title="Grimasse schneidendes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Grimasse schneidendes Gesicht">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😬" title="Grimasse schneidendes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Grimasse schneidendes Gesicht">

Looking at some advanced stats @rotounderworld:

Pass Attempt Distance were the same and he ranked top 6 in money throws both seasons

But his interceptable and danger passes jumped dramatically in 2019

Protection rate notably went from 11th to 30th

@AirYards shows positive signs that his efficiency remained consistent

From 2018 to 2019, Baker& #39;s expected cmp% and Passer Air Conversion Ratio (PACR) were similar, consistent mostly w league average

So what went wrong?

They had poor play selection and were unsuccessful doing it https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤷‍♂️" title="Achselzuckender Mann" aria-label="Emoji: Achselzuckender Mann">

1st downs were typically rushes w low success, leading to 2nd/3rd and longs, forcing Baker to try to succeed in known pass scenarios w low probability of success

What will #Browns new head coach, Stefanski, change?

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💠" title="Rautenform mit Punkt im Inneren" aria-label="Emoji: Rautenform mit Punkt im Inneren"> Huge increase in 2 TE sets (more efficient than 3 WR)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💠" title="Rautenform mit Punkt im Inneren" aria-label="Emoji: Rautenform mit Punkt im Inneren"> Kubiak& #39;s zone blocking scheme
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💠" title="Rautenform mit Punkt im Inneren" aria-label="Emoji: Rautenform mit Punkt im Inneren"> Even more play action

Cousins was #1 in Time to Throw in 2019 and 5.5% above expected cmp% w this scheme. Baker was -3.5%

2020 Expections:

Baker finished as the QB24 in 2019 w/ 15.64 pts/gm. Notably this is 2 pts/gm away from QB13 (wait on QB!)

This was because of:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen"> lower than expected cmp% (-3.3%)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen"> low TD% (4.1%)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen"> high INT% (3.9%)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen"> high sack rate (40)

2020 fantasy value:

If several of these categories regress back to his rookie season percentages, he can quickly return value at his QB18 ranking per @FantasyPros w a 3-4 pt/gm bump

Given his accuracy and https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend"> in expected cmp%, he is also a solid target in #SFBX scoring

Dynasty Value:

Baker& #39;s value has dropped from QB5 to QB9 since June 2019 (1QB formats in chart below) and is currently 33 overall in SF startups

He is a screaming buy at this price bc of:
rookie performance https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer">
advanced metrics https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚀" title="Rakete" aria-label="Emoji: Rakete">
supporting cast https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤑" title="Gesicht mit Geld-Mund" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Geld-Mund">

Conclusion:

Everything went wrong for Baker and Browns in 2019 w/ Kitchens as coach

Buy the dip and reap the benefits as his statistical outcomes (TD%, INT %, cmp%) align more w his metrics in 2020 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💯" title="Hundert Punkte Symbol" aria-label="Emoji: Hundert Punkte Symbol">