Thread by @adamplayford, NEW: Two weeks ago, a team of @TB

NEW: Two weeks ago, a team of @TB_Times reporters set out to answer the question on everyone’s mind here: Why hasn& #39;t Florida had the kind of major coronavirus outbreak many people expected in March? What we found surprised us: 1/

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https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="◾️" title="Black medium small square" aria-label="Emoji: Black medium small square"> Floridians were much, much quicker to stay home than anyone initially realized, according to cell phone data tracking their movement. Those early predictions were based on our elderly population and the fact that Florida was slower to shut down than most states.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="◾️" title="Black medium small square" aria-label="Emoji: Black medium small square"> But just look at how quick the blue line — which represents movement — goes down. By the time each county’s shutdown order took effect — the dashed line — most of the drop had already happened. (Data from @DescartesLabs)

But just look at how quick the blue line — which represents movement — goes down. By the time each county’s shutdown order took effect — the dashed line — most of the drop had already happened. (Data from @DescartesLabs)" title="https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="◾️" title="Black medium small square" aria-label="Emoji: Black medium small square"> But just look at how quick the blue line — which represents movement — goes down. By the time each county’s shutdown order took effect — the dashed line — most of the drop had already happened. (Data from @DescartesLabs)" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="◾️" title="Black medium small square" aria-label="Emoji: Black medium small square"> There is also evidence that leads some experts to believe that in early March, the infection simply hadn& #39;t spread as far here as it did some states with bigger outbreaks. That would lead the distancing Floridians undertook to work better here to choke off the disease’s spread.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="◾️" title="Black medium small square" aria-label="Emoji: Black medium small square">We also asked experts about the role of sprawl (very likely helped), temperature (harder to say), and luck (a big factor in communities when an outbreak is starting out). We explained how some of the key models work, and how they’ve evolved.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="◾️" title="Black medium small square" aria-label="Emoji: Black medium small square"> This isn’t over, and we’ll have to see what happens next. If you look at our grid of charts — we did one for every county with a sizable outbreak — you’ll see a noticeable uptick of movement in recent weeks. That began before the state started to reopen on Monday

Fifteen experts reviewed our analysis. Read more: https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/10/how-florida-slowed-coronavirus-everyone-stayed-home-before-they-were-told-to/">https://www.tampabay.com/news/heal...

How Florida slowed coronavirus: Everyone stayed home before they were told to

A Tampa Bay Times data analysis and interviews with 15 experts help answer the question: Why not Florida?

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/10/how-florida-slowed-coronavirus-everyone-stayed-home-before-they-were-told-to/

via @kmcgrory @scontorno @cljohnst @ZackSampson and myself, under guidance from @amy_hollyfield and other editors here

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